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Calculated Risk

Updated: Feb 21, 2022

Confirmation Bias

Making mistakes is acceptable (ak-sep-t-bl), even advisable (ad-vai-s-bl) , if you want to succeed in business. Leaving room for experimentation is essential, but you have to be careful, because not all mistakes are the same. 

Overconfidence, especially when creating new businesses, can lead to disaster. In psychology this is called confirmation bias: An individual only sees the data that confirms their theory (thear-ri) and discards the data that contradicts it.

But in the end reality prevails (preh-veils): the most frequent cause (cours) of failure (feil-ya) of a startup is to run out of money before achieving a stable income.

Running out of money is like running out of oxygen. Recovering from financial failure can take years. 

To avoid confirmation bias, actively seek out data that contradicts your theory. Look for critical voices, someone who will put you through the worst. From there you will take a calculated (calc-yi-lei-ted) risk, and if you fail, you can get up and try again. 

Riesgo calculado

Prejuicio de confirmación

Cometer errores es aceptable, incluso aconsejable, si se quiere tener éxito en los negocios. Dejar espacio para la experimentación es fundamental, pero hay que tener cuidado, porque no todos los errores son iguales. 

El exceso de confianza, sobre todo en la creación de nuevas empresas, puede llevar al desastre. En psicología esto se llama prejuicio de confirmación: Los fundadores sólo ven los datos que confirman su teoría y descartan los datos que la contradicen.